Tariffs are up. Markets are down. But startups? They might just find a silver lining.

New trade barriers mean more uncertainty—especially for tech companies.

As Tomasz Tunguz points out, US software companies generate nearly 50% of their revenue abroad. That level of international exposure makes them vulnerable to demand shocks, even if their cost structures remain intact.

But here’s the opportunity:

In uncertain times, great companies refocus on efficiency. And that’s where AI comes in.

Thoma Bravo estimates IT spend will grow from 2.5% to 4% of US GDP by 2030—driven largely by AI agents that cut costs and scale decision-making.

If tariffs slow buying decisions, they might simultaneously accelerate AI adoption. Startups will double down on automation, reduce reliance on volatile supply chains, and make their ops more resilient.

The takeaway?

What looks like a macro headwind might become an AI tailwind. Startups that adapt early will come out stronger.

Author

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