AI Model release and capabilities timeline

"A great illustration of the first-mover effect: nothing happens before the first demo, then once the existential proof is established, everyone else catches up quickly against all odds.

Just a year ago, it was unthinkable that any other model would even remotely approach GPT's lead. Today, Sonnet-3.5 (not even Anthropic's biggest Opus model) is already slightly above and Llama-3-400B is around the corner.

Just 4 months ago, Sora blew everyone's mind and seemed so out of reach. Today, we have at least 4-5 clones of Sora at 70-80% quality, such as Kling, Luma, and Runway. The clones wouldn't have rallied without OpenAI's first move.

Many companies have the technical muscle. But very, very few have good taste in projects and strong will to execute. First movers take tremendous risk, yet their advantages don't stick for too long."

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